Note: These are some musings I had regarding the second assassination attempt on Trump that occurred this weekend. I wanted to throw it out there quickly so it’s maybe not as articulate or polished as it could be. It is what it is.
I’ve been seeing a lot of speculation on the interwebs the last two days that this second would-be Trump assassin was also working for the government. I say also, because there is very convincing evidence that the first attempt was a setup, but I won’t cover all that here. When it was quickly revealed that the shooter had ties to the Ukrainian military, speculation abounded that this was a CIA operation. And it could very well be. But, I happen to think this second attack was actually the Ukrainians acting alone.
Yes, the shooter had ties to the Azov Brigade, and yes, the CIA was funding the Azov Brigade. But the CIA also funded ISIS. That doesn’t necessarily mean that every terror attack perpetrated by ISIS was ordered by and/or overseen by the CIA. In fact, the US was less than pleased, to put it mildly, when ISIS went off-script and invaded Iraq. The purpose of ISIS was supposed to be to overthrow Assad in Syria, not threaten US interests in Iraq. But this is actually more of the rule than the exception. These US proxy forces almost always go rogue. Like the CIA funding Osama bin Laden and the Mujahideen in Afghanistan against the Soviets, or Saddam Hussein against Iran. It’s like Libertarian podcaster Dave Smith famously says “if you want to know who America’s next enemy is, just look at who we’re funding right now.”
I don’t think the regime is currently trying to kill Donald Trump. I think they did try to kill him in July. I think the plan was to knock him off, give a moment of silence where all the talking heads mournfully decry how the “heated rhetoric” led to tragedy (while of course subtly victim-blaming Trump himself for ratcheting up said rhetoric), and then swap Biden for Harris to try to change the news cycle as quickly as possible. In fact, that’s basically what they did anyway. Notice that, post assassination attempt, the rhetoric (at least the “official” rhetoric) coming from the left has pivoted from demonizing Donald Trump as Orange Hitler to trying to push this positive message of "Joy" on the campaign trail. One might be reasonably skeptical of how effective “Good Vibes” as a platform would be during the current inflation-riddled economy, but polling seems to indicate that Harris is doing well. Much better than expected. The American regime is what Sam Francis called a “Soft Managerial Regime,” as opposed to a “Hard Managerial Regime” of somewhere like the Soviet Union. That means they would much rather solve problems by means of manipulation and social engineering than outright force. If it looks like they are going to actually win the election, or even that it will be close enough that they can convincingly cheat, then they will much prefer that. There is just too much risk associated with killing Trump, if they could just beat him another way.
Which brings us to Ukraine. Of course, Ukraine is a puppet state of the American Empire. But America’s puppet dictatorships go rogue all the time - in fact, as I mentioned above, most of the time. (If you weren’t paying attention, by the way, Zelensky has banned political opposition parties, jailed his political rivals, and suspended elections in Ukraine. He now qualifies as a dictator. So much for making the world safe for Democracy, eh?).
The situation in Ukraine has been rapidly deteriorating over the past few months. Despite the positive news coverage of the Ukrainian “Kursk Offensive,” this actually represents a wild hail-Mary on the part of the AFU. (Interestingly, it was also a wild hail-Mary on the part of the Wehrmacht, with similar results). Unlike last years much-vaunted Summer Offensive, the US military “spokespeoples” were much less enthusiastic and subdued in their assessment of Ukraine's odds on this one. It could be argued that this is simply because they want to present plausible deniability, to make it seem that they didn’t tell Ukraine to invade Russia. But, in my opinion, they didn’t actually want Ukraine to go into Kursk. After all, that’s why they made the Ukrainians stand up that ridiculous “Free Russia Brigade” to launch their previous border raids: actually invading Russian territory with NATO-trained and equipped soldiers rather than using them to defend territory represents a major escalation. I believe General Syrsky launched the Kursk offensive without permission, and then presented it to his NATO bosses as a fait accompli. “Hey, I got 20,000 soldiers inside Kursk Oblast right now, and you gave me these F-16s. You’re really not going to let me use them to provide air support? We’re just going to let these guys get killed?” And sure enough, the US and her NATO vassals are working right now to update the ROE to allow Ukraine to strike deep inside of Russia.
But it isn’t enough. Syrsky was hoping an attack on their home front would force Russia to redeploy troops from the Donbas to counter the Kursk incursion. This hasn’t happened. What has happened is that the Russian forces in Donbas have begun steamrolling the heavily fortified positions of the Ukrainians around Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and now even Kupyansk. This is largely because the reserves needed to reinforce these lines were redirected instead to Kursk, where they are driving around the lightly populated Russian steppe and taking heavy casualties. By the way, I’m not necessarily criticizing the Ukrainian command for this strategy, as many Western commentators are. Sending the reserves to Donbas would have slowed the Russian advance, but it wouldn’t have stopped it. At least with the hail-Mary, they had a chance to “disrupt” the battlefield and maybe make something happen.
The fact is, Ukraine is in an impossible situation. They were used as a proxy by the American regime, which of course doesn’t care about the lives of the Ukrainian conscripts, and just wanted to use them as a weapon to hurt Russia. They were persuaded by their Western patrons to ignore the many, many potential off-ramps to this conflict, and reject any opportunities for de-escalation, with promises that NATO would have their back, no matter what. But now, Western enthusiasm is waining, the Russian economy and military are stronger than ever, and it looks like Ukraine will be left holding the bag. So, of course the Azov guys want to assassinate Trump. Trump has said he is willing to negotiate with Russia. Negotiation with Russia means Ukraine losing territory. Of course, Ukraine is going to lose territory regardless, likely more territory the longer the war goes on. But the Azov Brigade is very “ideologically motivated,” let’s say, and they refuse to admit this.
The Azov Brigade are straight-up Nazis. Worse, they are terrorist Nazis. They have committed horrendous war crimes during the 2014-2022 Ukrainian Civil War, including barricading civilians inside of buildings and burning them alive. They have routinely tortured and executed prisoners of war in the current conflict. When Ukraine becomes a failed rump state (the most likely outcome of this war), Azov isn’t just going to go away. To be sure, most of their terrorist activities will be directed at Russia, but it seems very plausible, especially given Sunday’s assassination attempt, that they will direct at least some of their anger towards the Western countries that hung them out to dry. Dare we even say they may feel they were “stabbed in the back”?
This is a problem for the Right. As Ukrainian ethno-nationalist terrorists pour across our open borders, the Regime will finally get the White Nationalist Terrorists they've always dreamed of. Aside from the terrorism itself, the optics for the Right of Nazis committing these acts will be bad. Don’t think that the Regime will distinguish between Azov-types and MAGA-types. In fact, they will purposefully conflate them.