Yeah reigning in the intelligence community is a big lift. It's not like you can just "fire" CIA assets, either. They have these off-the-books budgets and criminal connections and Epstein types on the payroll. It's more like the mafia than a government agency.
All in all solid predictions. It all depends on how fast Trump moves. It also depends on how many Democrats and Republicans get arrested for crimes against humanity and treason. Should that happen, the path is clearer.
We may have broken the cycle of turnings as well. Intuitive hunch says that we are in a zone where none of the old theories work. cycles won't be happening. Perhaps new cycles to be created.
Many people seem to have taken the idea that 9-11 was the beginning of the Fourth Turning. As Hopium postulates, the Boomers just refuse to die off and get lost. But that just means the onset of the 4th Turning is delayed, not already occurred. My sense of it is that the 2008 Financial Crisis is a better event to mark the onset of the Fourth Turning from.
Theres a serious of compounding crises that seem to be converging on the impending reinstallment of Trump. Fiscal crisis, a population teetering on the brink of insolvency itself, an entrenched Deep State which is fighting tooth and nail to resist being reined in while assuming more and more power and control, an elite class which illegally imports tens of millions of non-assimilable invaders into western society in the US and Europe, and lastly, a neo-con warmongering cabal which has escalated a territorial dispute between Russia and one of its historical regions into an existential threat to Pax Americana and has brought us to the brink of nuclear war with Russia. The climax to these converging crises has not yet occurred. Throw in a new plandemic, possible assassination, civil war, or world war and the coming next few years could be the most consequential era of US history.
Yeah, the one piece that doesnt fit the "fourth turning already happened" narrative is that society is supposed to unite to overcome the Crises, and that generates a cathartic release. That definitely didn't happen during Covid, so perhaps something goes down and the country rallies behind Trump.
That would be hilarious if Trump goes down in history as a Lincoln-type figure who saved America. The ultimate fuck-you to the TDS crowd.
I think the climax is the Trump reelection, though we may get a surprise or two over 2025 I think we are in the falling action of the crisis. One thing to remember is that it is hard to pinpoint history when you are in it - there's a famous story about people in some recent civil war where most people didn't believe it until a tank shell went through their house personally.
Looking back they'll call our vax the lead pipe drinking of the Roman Empire, they'll call Ukraine the start of WWIII, and all sorts of stuff people are hesitating to nail down now.
"I don’t have a specific prediction regarding the security state, because quite honestly that is going to be a tough nut to crack. The degree to which the intelligence community has embedded itself in our public and private institutions is quite demoralizing when you stop and ponder it. "
Just look at the Stasi for the model. They stop getting paid and go home and draw government pensions in peace for the rest of their lives.
"Because of the subtle nature of control in East Germany, the vast majority of those involved with the repression apparatus were never brought to justice after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Of the more than 91,000 full-time Stasi officers in 1989, thirty-three were sentenced by the year 2000. Twenty-eight of the sentences were suspended, four were settled financially. Only one of the full-time workers of the largest secret police per capita in world history went to jail - an unassuming watchman at a district office in the countryside, who, after having had too much vodka, drew his weapon and shot two people near the remote outpost. That watchman, Werner Funk, was sentenced in 1990 to ten years in prison."
"Former Stasi officers are often described as socially toxic - their lives ruined, reluctant to talk publicly about their past activities, pushed into marginal employment like distributing advertising leaflets or working as parking attendants. (Picking up on this theme, in the 2006 film The Lives of Others, former Stasi officer Gerd Wiesler works as a postman after reunification.) But these may be exaggerations; very little hard data on this topic exists. Former Stasi officers do continue to draw a reduced public pension. Many also managed to parlay their skills into lucrative post-reunification employment, working for private security firms, German-Russian commercial enterprises, real-estate brokerages, public-sector agencies, and in other fields. Still others started their own businesses - an act of entrepreneurial adaption one might not expect from old Chekists. And, as many historians and journalists have discovered, it is not difficult to find and interview former Stasi officers about their experiences, at least on background. See, for example, the many conversations with former Stasi men conducted by historian Timothy Garton Ash for his memoir The File, or by journalist Anna Funder for her book Stasiland."
Sadly I think the most likely outcome is still: "Trump tries for real, and then the intel community soft or hard coups him"
Notably Putin has mused publically that the deep state killing Trump is still likely.
Yeah reigning in the intelligence community is a big lift. It's not like you can just "fire" CIA assets, either. They have these off-the-books budgets and criminal connections and Epstein types on the payroll. It's more like the mafia than a government agency.
All in all solid predictions. It all depends on how fast Trump moves. It also depends on how many Democrats and Republicans get arrested for crimes against humanity and treason. Should that happen, the path is clearer.
We may have broken the cycle of turnings as well. Intuitive hunch says that we are in a zone where none of the old theories work. cycles won't be happening. Perhaps new cycles to be created.
Appreciate the positive outlook. Too many blackpillers on Substack for my liking.
I can suggest looking up information regarding the Great or Grand Conjunction of 2020, I think that that would be of worth for you.
That's where those 20 million votes came from!
I read that book around 2012.
Many people seem to have taken the idea that 9-11 was the beginning of the Fourth Turning. As Hopium postulates, the Boomers just refuse to die off and get lost. But that just means the onset of the 4th Turning is delayed, not already occurred. My sense of it is that the 2008 Financial Crisis is a better event to mark the onset of the Fourth Turning from.
Theres a serious of compounding crises that seem to be converging on the impending reinstallment of Trump. Fiscal crisis, a population teetering on the brink of insolvency itself, an entrenched Deep State which is fighting tooth and nail to resist being reined in while assuming more and more power and control, an elite class which illegally imports tens of millions of non-assimilable invaders into western society in the US and Europe, and lastly, a neo-con warmongering cabal which has escalated a territorial dispute between Russia and one of its historical regions into an existential threat to Pax Americana and has brought us to the brink of nuclear war with Russia. The climax to these converging crises has not yet occurred. Throw in a new plandemic, possible assassination, civil war, or world war and the coming next few years could be the most consequential era of US history.
Yeah, the one piece that doesnt fit the "fourth turning already happened" narrative is that society is supposed to unite to overcome the Crises, and that generates a cathartic release. That definitely didn't happen during Covid, so perhaps something goes down and the country rallies behind Trump.
That would be hilarious if Trump goes down in history as a Lincoln-type figure who saved America. The ultimate fuck-you to the TDS crowd.
I think the climax is the Trump reelection, though we may get a surprise or two over 2025 I think we are in the falling action of the crisis. One thing to remember is that it is hard to pinpoint history when you are in it - there's a famous story about people in some recent civil war where most people didn't believe it until a tank shell went through their house personally.
Looking back they'll call our vax the lead pipe drinking of the Roman Empire, they'll call Ukraine the start of WWIII, and all sorts of stuff people are hesitating to nail down now.
"I don’t have a specific prediction regarding the security state, because quite honestly that is going to be a tough nut to crack. The degree to which the intelligence community has embedded itself in our public and private institutions is quite demoralizing when you stop and ponder it. "
Just look at the Stasi for the model. They stop getting paid and go home and draw government pensions in peace for the rest of their lives.
"Because of the subtle nature of control in East Germany, the vast majority of those involved with the repression apparatus were never brought to justice after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Of the more than 91,000 full-time Stasi officers in 1989, thirty-three were sentenced by the year 2000. Twenty-eight of the sentences were suspended, four were settled financially. Only one of the full-time workers of the largest secret police per capita in world history went to jail - an unassuming watchman at a district office in the countryside, who, after having had too much vodka, drew his weapon and shot two people near the remote outpost. That watchman, Werner Funk, was sentenced in 1990 to ten years in prison."
"Former Stasi officers are often described as socially toxic - their lives ruined, reluctant to talk publicly about their past activities, pushed into marginal employment like distributing advertising leaflets or working as parking attendants. (Picking up on this theme, in the 2006 film The Lives of Others, former Stasi officer Gerd Wiesler works as a postman after reunification.) But these may be exaggerations; very little hard data on this topic exists. Former Stasi officers do continue to draw a reduced public pension. Many also managed to parlay their skills into lucrative post-reunification employment, working for private security firms, German-Russian commercial enterprises, real-estate brokerages, public-sector agencies, and in other fields. Still others started their own businesses - an act of entrepreneurial adaption one might not expect from old Chekists. And, as many historians and journalists have discovered, it is not difficult to find and interview former Stasi officers about their experiences, at least on background. See, for example, the many conversations with former Stasi men conducted by historian Timothy Garton Ash for his memoir The File, or by journalist Anna Funder for her book Stasiland."
I wish I was 20 years younger so bad now.
Trump will not shut down the DoE or do mass deportations.
Excellent article: much to chew on...